Don’t wait for Spring

In This Week’s How’s The Market | Edition 158

• Don’t wait for Spring

• Autumn Advantage: Where Serious Buyers Move First

• Winter Lull – Quiet Market, Real Opportunities Hidden in Plain Sight

It is incredibly common for buyers and sellers to want to time the market.

Especially when things are uncertain or prices are dropping.

Now, the most common myth that we see is that the best time to buy and sell is in Spring.

Now it is true that across October & November approx 40% of sales happen for the year, but whilst there are 40% more properties for sale, there are also 40% more buyers.

So what we are going to do today is break down the rest of the year, what is coming and where the best opportunities could be.

But first, a market update.

For the week ending 19th Apr in Melbourne, there were 1362 auctions with a clearance rate of 43.69% according to SQM.

For the top end of the market above $1.5m across Boroondara, Stonnington, Port Phillip & Yarra, there were 32 auctions that took place with a clearance rate of 34.37%.

Showcasing the top end market has performed slightly worse over the last weekend which is below the last couple of months.

Don’t wait for Spring

    1. Where we actually are

April has been a quieter month for real estate, with Easter, school holidays, and ANZAC Day slowing new listings.

This comes after a record March for auction volumes, but with some of Melbourne’s lowest clearance rates, leading to rising stock levels especially in inner-city auction-heavy suburbs.

Overall, April has remained subdued, with market uncertainty around fuel prices, global conflict, and potential further interest rate rises keeping buyer confidence cautious.

This is creating a HUGE opportunity for buyers right now as there is more stock, fewer buyers and very nervous vendors.

I think this will be one of the better opportunities this year.

    2. The autumn window (now → end of May)

Autumn (now → end of May) is often the overlooked selling season but it’s when motivated vendors re-enter the market before winter.

Look out for re-listed properties, price guide reductions, and pre-auction offers being accepted more readily than they were in spring.

With shorter campaigns,fewer buyers, and less emotional competition, autumn often creates stronger opportunities for well-prepared buyers.

   3. The winter window (June – August)

We always see stock numbers drop over the winter period.

Many agents go away, as do vendors, and there are also school holidays to avoid.

For this reason, we typically see vendors either try to list and sell before or after winter if they have the luxury of time.

This allows us as buyers agents to get access to a lot more off market spring stock before it is listed with the public.

As less stock will be coming online over this period, I can see the backlog of stock from March and autumn overall clearing up.

This could then actually create a more competitive market in spring which is why we believe it will not be the most opportune time to buy and the real opportunity is right now.

    4. Pre-spring positioning (late August–September)

Late August to September is often when the smartest buyers quietly step in while most of the market is still sitting on the sidelines.

By early spring, properties are already being secured before stock levels rise, competition intensifies, and sentiment turns..

Waiting for “certainty” usually means entering after the shift has already happened and paying 5–10% more for the same property. 

What The Agents Are Saying

Listings are low.

Deals are becoming harder to close.

Many buyers are becoming flaky.

Vendors are very nervous, and many more of them are opting to trial the market via an off-market campaign as opposed to running a full campaign online.

Agents are worried about low stock levels over the winter period.

Nearly every agent tells me the same thing.

Under $700k is doing very well.

Most agents (depending on the market) are saying that $700k – $1.4m are going strong still, however, today, I heard some agents telling me that properties over $700k are struggling.

The Wow Factor!

94 Rae Street, Fitzroy North, Vic 3068

Landmark architectural residence in Fitzroy North’s premier tree-lined pocket.

Why it WOWs:

• Bold spacetime™ design wrapped around a private north-facing courtyard oasis.
• Soaring 3.6m ceilings, sculptural forms, and seamless indoor–outdoor flow throughout.
• Green marble kitchen, American oak detailing, and high-end designer finishes.
• Flexible luxury with sunken dining, upper retreat, CBD glimpses, and future studio-ready garage.

Price guide: $3,500,000 – $3,800,000