Thinking of Buying in 2026? Listen to This First

19/02/2026
Tristan Larkin
In This Week’s How's The Market | Edition 144

In This Week’s How’s The Market | Edition 144

  • Thinking of Buying in 2026? Listen to This First

  • Understanding market timing and stock flow

  • How auction calendars dictate your buying opportunities


Reflecting on 2025: What Actually Happened

Before we look ahead, it’s worth reflecting on what actually happened last year and how that shapes expectations for 2026.

Some high-level stats from 2025:

  • Total residential transactions: 560,979

  • First home buyers: approximately 120,000

  • Total residential value climbed to $13.4 trillion, a national increase of 8.6%

  • Lower value market segment grew by 11.0% versus 6.7% for upper markets

  • Regional Victoria grew by 6%

  • Metro Melbourne grew by 4.8%

Total Listings Fell:

  • Melbourne total listings dropped 12.6%

  • Regional Vic total listings dropped 7.7%

The market tightened, prices rose, and stock remained constrained. That context matters as we move into 2026.

Weekly Topic: Thinking of Buying in 2026? Listen to This First

If you’re thinking of buying in 2026 or you’ve been searching since last year and are still actively in the market, you need to know what the calendar holds and what big dates affect the flow of stock.

I’ve analysed the Peak Selling Periods Calendar for Glen Iris, averaged over the last three years. It shows the number of transactions in each calendar month.

There are three main peaks and three main troughs.

What We’re Seeing Throughout The Year

  • January – The First Trough (We’re In It Now)

For Glen Iris houses, January has averaged only 4 sales for the month.

  • February & March – The First Major Peak

Feb and March have averaged 24 and 28 sales respectively.

  • April – The Easter Lull

There’s a lull in April due to Easter.

  • July – The Second Major Trough

The second major trough where sales fall to 11 for the month.

  • August & September – Building Back Up

Things slowly pick back up across August and September.

  • November & December – The Largest Season

The biggest season of the year.

Why This Matters

If you’re looking in Boroondara, Stonnington, or any other auction-dominated market, you’ll see a similar flow of stock.

The most important thing to consider is when these transactions actually occur. There are usually only one or two big auction weekends per month. Public holidays and school holidays dictate this.

This means: If you’re currently looking to buy, you may only have a couple of good weekends across Feb and March. Multiple properties you’re interested in could go to auction on the same weekend. Then stock drops off for April and Easter.

Two Main Issues This Creates for Buyers

1. Buyers overpay because they’re forced to choose between two properties on the same day.

They don’t want to miss out on both.

2. Buyers purchase properties they regret.

Little to no stock is available and they fear they’re missing out on the market or that it’s already gone.

How to Overcome These Issues

It can work… but only for the right buyer.

You need:

  • Long time horizons

  • Strong cash buffers

  • Access to good builders

  • High risk tolerance

For most owner-occupiers in 2025, building is a strategy, not a lifestyle decision.

What The Agents Are Saying

  • First buying weekend of 2026 showing typical January slowdown

  • Stock levels remain thin across Boroondara and Stonnington

  • February/March expected to bring the first major surge of listings

  • Buyers who stay active during January are finding less competition

  • Off-market opportunities increasing as vendors test the market privately before committing to autumn campaigns

The Wow Factor!

53 Prospect Hill Road, Camberwell, Vic 3124

Camberwell’s Grand Italianate Victorian Estate

Why it WOWs:

  • Landmark Italianate Victorian on a vast 1,741sqm allotment

  • Soaring ceilings, ornate period detailing & sweeping staircase

  • Multiple formal and family living zones with leafy garden outlooks

  • Marble kitchen, premium appliances & timeless luxury finishes

  • Rare blue-chip Prospect Hill location near elite schools & Camberwell Junction

Price guide : $6,500,000 – $7,100,000

Final Thoughts

The property market doesn’t operate on your timeline, it operates on a calendar that repeats every single year.

The question isn’t whether you should buy in 2026. It’s whether you understand when to buy and how the rhythm of stock flow will dictate your opportunities, your competition, and ultimately, your outcome.

Don’t let the calendar catch you off guard.

If you or someone you know would like assistance to buy this year, book in a call and we can discuss if we can help.

Thanks for reading this far!

We value feedback and if you have any suggestions on what you would like covered in the future please email me at [email protected]

Happy Buying!

Note: This is general advice and does not take into consideration your objectives, situations or needs. Please consider if this advice is suitable for you and your circumstances and speak to a professional before making any financial decisions.

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